Natural hazards risk assessment using Bayesian networks

The objective of the present paper is the demonstration of the potential and advantages of Bayesian networks for the application in risk assessments for natural hazards. For this purpose, a general framework for natural hazards risk assessment is presented and a brief introduction to Bayesian networks is provided. The methodology is then applied to rating systems for assessing rock-fall hazard risks on roads, where it is shown how Bayesian networks can improve the consistency and traceability of such models. It is pointed out that Bayesian networks have a large potential for the modeling of natural hazard risks because of their intuitive format, which facilitates the cooperation of specialists from several disciplines, and because they support the modeling of the various inter-dependencies, caused by common influencing parameters, which are typical for natural hazards.